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COMMENT: I just had to say thank you. I kept a copy of your private post What Are the Markets Telling Us? from FEBRUARY 24, 2024. Your model called for a high in January, the false move to retest support in February, and a resumption of the trend into April. You have taught me so much about how markets move. Only a fool buys and holds, expecting every month to be higher.
Keep up the great reports. This is when many say we need you the most.
Jeb
That Post 2/24/24 Was:
The UK has a slightly different pattern from continental Europe. Germany shows a Panic Cycle in June. But the targets are shaping up as May and July. Blending in gold, January was high, and Feb has retested support, yet softly. Volatility should rise now going into March, and April 19/20th is the ECM turning point of the Ukraine/Russia War, followed by the main ECM target of May 7th. Here, too, we see rising volatility in gold from May into August, with a Panic Cycle in September and the peak in volatility in November probably related to the 2024 election.
ANSWER: Thank you. Everything moves in a cycle. Many of the great discoveries come only from observing how markets trade. John Law came up with the theory of Supply and demand. Gresham saw how the debasement of money caused people to hoard the older money, which actually shrank the money supply, forcing the state to debase even more.
Only a fool refuses to learn about the markets. If you cannot grasp this basic fundamental principle, forget investment; you are just a fool who will lose everything. There are always false moves. That is how the market is propelled by moving in the opposite direction, creating bull and bear traps. Every rally in gold for 19 years was touted as this time will be different. When they failed, they blamed the bankers. NOBODY but NOBODY can manipulate any market, altering its trend. They can push the market around within the scope of support and resistance. But they cannot change the trend no matter what.
No market can be manipulated against its inherent trend. That is total BS. The majority is ALWAYS wrong, and that is what creates the crash. They are all long, try to get out, and there is no bid. Look at the Slinky moving down the steps. The opposite side gains the majority of power and then pulls the other side down, and so on. This is how the markets move. It is always a battle between bulls and bears, which is why the markets can never go in one direction. The same is true about everything, including climate change. The climate has always changed the same as markets have always risen and fallen, only to rise again. Marxism did not understand this fundamental, and it, like some gold bugs, tried to make the economy rise and never fall back into recession.
The French physicist Jean Foucault discovered what is known as the Foucault Pendulum. He proved that the earth rotated on its axis. The pendulum was constantly moving back and forth like markets by its own inertia. In the course of 24 hours, the floor moved in a circle. Since you are standing next to this pendulum at the Houston Museum of Natural Science, the illusion is that it moves in a circle when you and the floor are fixed on Earth.
NOT EVERYTHING IS WHAT IT SEEMS – ONLY A FOOL REFUSES TO SEE
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